I'll probably be doing another one for the OpenSource radio show. You will have to excuse my very cheap and half broken microphone and horrible accent. (Didn't get to talk in English for the last seven years or so, I'm a little rusty)
Now that we got that out of the way, let's talk about what's going to happen next. I've been asked a number of times now how much longer do I think this conflict will go on. I can't tell, nobody can. But looking into my crystal ball I think it might be a while longer.
Some good news is that the three kidnapped soldiers are all alive. They will hopefully be kept alive and unharmed to negotiate a ceasefire and the exchange of prisoners. Here's to their safe return.
But it might be a week or two, at least, from now. The Israeli air force destroyed six rocket launchers today out of the few dozen that currently exist. That's not enough. Also, if you have been aching for proof of Syrian involvement in this, trucks delivering weapons have been intercepted and destroyed traveling from Syria into Lebanon.
It's becoming increasingly obvious that while the air force is doing a good job, it hit over a hundred strategic locations today, ground troops need to go in for short bursts of time to do some cleaning work. And new intelligence needs to be gathered as most of the established targets by the IDF have been destroyed already. All of that takes time. Involvement from other nations, things like Condoleezza Rice flying out here for example (she hasn't), is scant.
Nasrallah also likes to fire the last shot, so we might see him use something he hasn't used before just prior to a potential ceasefire. As long as Syria is not a direct part of this, seems to me that while there is a lot of tension it's under control.