Live from an Israeli bunker

Saturday, July 22, 2006

Lebanon & Syria



So amid the sirens (eight times today, they keep missing), I'm going to go over the situation as it's happening right now and what is likely to happen.

Yesterday, the Lebanese defence minister said that if Israel invades the south of Lebanon the Lebanese army will join Hezbollah against Israel. Right, well guessed what happened today? Israeli armoured troops has steamrolled thru a UN post and right into the south of Lebanon taking control of a few villages. At the same time, the IAF have took out the communications and major TV stations in Lebanon. A major problem in my opinion have been the media, from all over the world including Israel, who trip over each other to show what's going on. Obviously I'm very much in favor of journalistic freedom, but showing street signs after rockets hit Haifa or the movement of Israeli troops provides information to the Hezbollah. It wouldn't kill them to wait a few hours, it might kill somebody if they don't.
So we don't get to see troop movement and operations live. We shouldn't get to.

What your seeing on the map as the red circles is where the fighting is going on. Now, does this constitute as an all out invasion? I don't think so, but it's developing. If the Lebanese defence ministers words yesterday weren't just hot air a 60,000 strong Lebanese army will jump into the fray during the next couple of days. I said 60,000 strong, but that army is weak and will get crushed. It's stupid of them to side with Hezbollah, who are the very people who got them into the situation in the first place. Their army is very poorly equipped and will suffer heavy losses.

Now take a look over at Syria, it uses to have supporting countries all around but if Israel was to out right invade Lebanon (which is not what Israel wants or is currently planning on doing), the only link to the outside world so to speak would be by sea. If you notice a dark blue line on the map, it represents Israel's naval blockade of Lebanon which can easily and effectively be extended to isolate Syria.

If you were a sane Syrian you would probably be silent as a mouse right now and stop sending Hezbollah reinforcements out of fear of the above scenario, right? Syria has ageing equipment and Israel's total dominance in the air, coupled with easily being cut off from reinforcements from Iran make for a very poor strategic situation for them. If they were to get into this as well they would also be over run. And I'm not trying to be patriotic here, but I'm being realistic.

But you have to be sane to see that. Syria is widely known in the Arabic world to have been supporting Hezbollah, they would lose face if they were to stop now. Not to mention the pressure from Iran to keep on doing it. So to say now how Syria will behave is very hard, it's impossible to predict.

Finally, watching Fox they had Netanyahu on and he represented us beautifully. After him they interviewed a Lebanese journalist the name of whom I didn't catch.

He said that Hezbollah is a state within a state and what Israel is doing is weaking the Lebanese goverment who would have dealt with them if they had more time. Well time ran out, and you'll have time again in the future to do just that. Naturally he complained about the civilian situation in Lebanon and the Lebanese anger at Israel, that's understandable and he has my sympathy. But what is really interesting is he said that most Lebanese are mad at Hezbollah for starting this and that after it is over they will have to ask themselves some tough questions about that. Be angry now, you have every right to experience that feeling, but do not forget this.

Updates soon.

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