Hiding like rabbits, but not as cute
First quiet day for Haifa in quite a while. Something feels different today. The picture above is what 23 tons of bombs exploding look like. It's being reported that Nasrallah was not there, but then again we haven't seen him on TV for four days now. And coupled with today's almost non-existent attacks on Haifa maybe, just maybe something in Hezbollah's chain of command got disrupted.
But don't get a false impression; they got pushed back so the bulk of the fighting is in the north. But they are still there. And it's not over by a long shot. The Hezbollah has dug tunnels, some as deep as 40 meters (130 feet), so during air strikes they hide down there and are unaffected. After a few hours they come out and shot another rocket. The tunnels have multiple entrances, some right inside houses.
This is not unlike what the Vietnamese did during the Vietnam war. To get them now, ground troops will unfortunately have to be sent in, and they are expected. In fact two soldiers were killed yesterday and nine injured today.
It seems to me, and I'm prefacing this by saying that I have no military training and not a lot of information to go by, that sending ground troops in is playing into the hands of the Hezbollah. I think there's a link between Hezbollah and Iran, they are nothing other then a front for the Iranian army. They are well trained and have been preparing for this for years. I can't imagine that they haven't anticipated this. Intelligence is the key here, wherever a rocket is fired from that location needs to be discovered, marked, and the area bombed extensively while at the same time preventing reinforcements arriving from Syria and the north of Lebanon.
The air force is currently operating at 20% of its capacity, keep at it for a few days and warn civilians all over the place (they have to go on TV and state this as much as possible) and crank it up afterwards.
Switching gears for a moment, a humanitarian passage way has been opened with the approval of Israel via Cyprus. The EU is providing Lebanon with 10 million euros, I hope they aren't giving them money (which is of little use there right now and only comes out to about 20 euros per person) which can be used to buy weapons but rather food and medical provisions for the civilians only.
Finally, today's relative calmness could be attributed as the silence before the storm. They may be up to something. Depends if you’re an optimist or not, but a sense of false security is not recommended right now either way. This is still very much ongoing and will probably get worse before getting better.
Update: As I was writing this post Nasrallah was shown on TV, not speaking live but from tape and from the content it's obvious that he is alive. He denies that Hezbollah was damaged at all,but then you would expect that from him. He also says he will not release the kidnapped soldiers.